China’s crude oil imports surged to a two-year high in November, reaching an average of 12.38 million barrels per day. This figure, as reported by Reuters citing government data, represents a 4.88% increase compared to the same month last year and marks the highest import rate since August 2023. The November data also indicates a 5.24% rise from imports in October, contributing to a total of 521.87 million tons of oil imported from January to November, which averages out to 11.45 million barrels per day.
The details reveal a shifting landscape in China’s oil sourcing. While imports from Russia have declined by 157,000 barrels per day, averaging 1.19 million barrels daily, shipments from Saudi Arabia increased by 345,000 barrels daily to reach 1.59 million barrels, establishing the kingdom as China’s top supplier for the month. Additionally, imports from Iran rose significantly, adding 233,000 barrels daily from October, totaling an average of 1.35 million barrels per day.
According to Emma Li, head of China analysis at Vortexa, “Domestic demand has experienced a seasonal decline, but sanctions on crude supplies from Iran and Russia have led to significant price reductions for feedstock, boosting refining margins.” This situation has prompted more refineries to apply for advance import quotas ahead of the first batch scheduled for 2026.
Despite the record import figures, analysts predict that demand for crude in China, the world’s largest oil importer, will likely remain weak until at least the middle of next year. The market research unit of the state energy giant CNPC, known as the Economics and Technology Research Institute, previously stated that while stronger economic growth and rising petrochemical demand could lift oil consumption by 1.1% this year, the consumption of transportation fuels has likely peaked.
In response to the changing market dynamics, independent refiners in Shandong are ramping up their oil purchases and processing activities. This increase follows the Chinese government’s issuance of a new set of crude import quotas, which has helped reduce oil in storage. Analysts suggest that this buying trend may alleviate a perceived supply overhang before the end of the year.
The developments in November’s oil import figures suggest a complex interplay of domestic demand, international supply chains, and geopolitical factors affecting China’s energy landscape. As global oil markets continue to adjust, the implications for pricing and availability will be closely monitored by industry stakeholders.
