The Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica, often referred to as the “Doomsday Glacier,” is on the verge of a significant collapse that could have dire consequences for global sea levels and coastal communities. A study published by the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC) reveals that large cracks are forming in the ice shelf, jeopardizing its structural integrity. Scientists have observed a worrying acceleration in the glacier’s retreat, heightening concerns about its potential impact on sea level rise.
Over the past two decades, researchers from the University of Manitoba analyzed satellite data from 2002 to 2022, documenting the growth of cracks in the Thwaites Glacier. The study indicates that the total length of fractures has increased from approximately 100 miles to over 200 miles. However, the average length of these cracks has decreased, suggesting new stresses are affecting the glacier’s stability.
Ocean Warming Compounds the Threat
The situation beneath the surface is equally alarming. Recent research highlights that warming ocean waters are eroding ice shelves like Thwaites at an unprecedented rate. These changes can occur not just over years but within hours and days as swirling eddies of warmer water, measuring up to six miles across, interact with the glacier.
A troubling feedback loop has been identified, where cold water released from the glacier mixes with warmer, saltier ocean water, leading to increased turbulence and further ice melting. According to co-author and UC San Diego assistant professor Lia Siegelman, “This positive feedback loop could gain intensity in a warming climate,” indicating that the risk of glacier collapse could escalate as global temperatures rise.
The ITGC’s 2025 report projects a grim future for the Thwaites Glacier. Although a complete collapse within the next few decades is deemed unlikely, the findings suggest that the glacier will continue to retreat more rapidly throughout the 21st and 22nd centuries. The report emphasizes the urgent need for climate change mitigation efforts, stating, “Immediate and sustained climate change mitigation (decarbonization) offers the best hope of delaying this ice loss.”
As scientists work to understand the full implications of these changes, the future of the Thwaites Glacier remains uncertain. The potential for a collapse that could trigger up to 11 feet of global sea level rise poses a significant threat to tens of millions of people living in coastal areas.
The ongoing research into the Thwaites Glacier serves as a critical reminder of the pressing challenges posed by climate change and the importance of taking action to safeguard our planet’s future.
