The recent military operation by the United States that resulted in the removal of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has led to significant fluctuations in the energy market. Following the operation, U.S. energy equities saw a notable surge in premarket trading. This optimism reflects investor expectations that major oil companies such as Chevron and Exxon Mobil are well-positioned to capitalize on a potential revival of Venezuela’s oil sector under a new geopolitical landscape.
On Monday, Brent crude futures remained relatively stable, showing little immediate reaction to the events. In contrast, shares of Chevron jumped as much as 10% in premarket trading, while ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil saw increases of 5% and 3%, respectively. If Chevron maintains its gains, it would mark the largest daily increase since late summer 2022. This surge is largely attributed to Chevron’s unique position in Venezuela, where it is currently producing approximately 200,000–250,000 barrels of oil per day under a U.S. sanctions waiver.
Chevron’s Competitive Advantage in Venezuela
According to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Vincent G. Piazza, Chevron stands out among its peers as the only major U.S. oil company still actively producing in Venezuela. Piazza notes that the company’s existing infrastructure and established export routes provide a clear pathway for increased production should the political landscape shift favorably. A more welcoming government could facilitate Chevron’s ability to ramp up production, export more freely to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries, and recover billions owed by state-owned PDVSA.
While Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips possess significant legal claims against the Venezuelan government—Exxon holding an arbitration award of over $1 billion and ConocoPhillips exceeding $10 billion—their operational prospects in the near term are less favorable compared to Chevron’s. A U.S.-aligned government could prioritize settling these claims, but the immediate operational benefits appear stronger for Chevron.
Implications for Global Oil Markets
The U.S. government announced on January 7, 2026, that it had captured Maduro after a military operation in Caracas. President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. will oversee Venezuela until a legitimate replacement is established. Trump emphasized that U.S. oil companies would invest significantly in revitalizing Venezuela’s deteriorated oil infrastructure, potentially leading to increased exports.
Despite the optimistic outlook for U.S. energy companies, analysts suggest that the near-term impact on oil prices may be negative. While current U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil remain intact, the removal of Maduro may mitigate the risk of further substantial drops in production. Venezuela’s current output is approximately 0.9 million barrels per day, which is less than 1% of global supply. Reports indicate production fell by around 150,000 barrels per day in December 2025 due to sanctions, down from 850,000 barrels per day in November.
Market analysts anticipate that if U.S. restrictions are lifted, Venezuela could quickly ramp up production back to 1 million barrels per day, with potential to reach 1.2–1.3 million barrels per day over time. While this could introduce additional supply into the market, it may also exert downward pressure on prices, which remain a concern for the broader oil market in 2026.
Looking forward, the OPEC+ coalition has confirmed its plans to maintain production cuts in February and March 2026, in line with seasonal trends. The group will meet again on February 1, but the more pivotal discussions are expected in early March regarding production adjustments in April.
Analysts from Goldman Sachs have remarked on the implications of the so-called “Don-roe Doctrine,” indicating that while short-term impacts on oil prices may be ambiguous, the long-term outlook could be challenging. They predict that increased production from Venezuela could lead to downward pressure on price forecasts for 2027 and beyond.
Venezuela, which produced around 3 million barrels per day at its peak, holds significant oil reserves but requires substantial investment and political stability to achieve any meaningful recovery in production. As history shows with other countries that have undergone U.S.-led regime changes, the path to stabilization and increased production is often fraught with challenges.
In conclusion, while the removal of Maduro may present opportunities for U.S. oil companies, the journey toward a stable and productive Venezuelan oil industry remains complex and uncertain. Investors and analysts will be closely monitoring the evolving political landscape and its implications for the global oil market.
