Federal authorities are advancing their own management plans for the Colorado River as the seven states that rely on it struggle to reach a consensus on necessary water cuts. The situation has become increasingly urgent due to the diminishing water flows caused by climate change.
Last week, the Bureau of Reclamation released a comprehensive 1,600-page document outlining five potential plans for river management. The current regulations are set to expire at the end of this year, and while the agency has not indicated a preferred proposal, it hopes to encourage the states—Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico, California, Arizona, and Nevada—to reach an agreement incorporating elements from these plans.
The timeline is critical. The states missed a November 11 deadline to share concepts for a consensus plan and now have until February 14, 2024, to present a detailed proposal that will impact the lives of 40 million people in the Southwest. They were scheduled to meet this week in Salt Lake City to continue negotiations. Federal officials must finalize a plan by October 1 to coincide with the start of the 2027 water year.
“The Department of the Interior is moving forward with this process to ensure environmental compliance is in place so operations can continue without interruption when the current guidelines expire,” stated Andrea Travnicek, the Assistant Secretary for Water and Science at the Department of the Interior. She emphasized that the river’s health and the needs of its dependents cannot wait, particularly in light of an ongoing severe drought.
A 45-day public comment period will commence on the proposed plans, which are included in a draft environmental impact statement. While the current operating guidelines are set to expire at the end of 2026, it is crucial that a replacement plan is established before the onset of the new water year.
The future of the Colorado River, vital for agriculture, industry, and daily life in the region, hinges on whether the seven basin states can agree on a cooperative plan.
The snowpack in the Colorado River headwaters has reached record lows, with 55% of the median recorded over the past 30 years as of January 7. This decrease in snowpack means less water will flow into reservoirs like Lake Powell and Lake Mead, which are currently only 33% and 26% full, respectively. Projections from the Bureau of Reclamation indicate that, under worst-case scenarios, Lake Powell could drop below critical levels necessary to operate its power turbines by October and remain below the minimum power pool until June 2027.
The draft environmental impact statement outlines five distinct management plans, each varying in how much water would be released from the reservoirs to the Lower Basin states—Arizona, Nevada, and California. Some proposals suggest using reservoir levels to dictate water flow, while one, known as the Supply Driven Alternative, would use a three-year average of river flows to determine release amounts.
While the proposed cuts to the Upper Basin states would be significantly smaller—limited to 350,000 acre-feet compared to up to 4 million acre-feet for the Lower Basin—Upper Basin negotiators have been resistant to mandatory reductions. The Colorado River District, which represents water interests in Colorado, criticized the proposed Upper Basin cuts as unrealistic given the region’s limited water supply.
Concerns about climate change loom large over the discussions. The Colorado River District has pointed out that projected flows could shrink to an average of 9 million to 10 million acre-feet annually, significantly below the 12 million to 14 million acre-feet that the Bureau of Reclamation has modeled for certain scenarios. The disparity between these projections could have severe implications for both the river’s ecosystems and the communities that depend on it.
As negotiations continue, stakeholders emphasize the need to prioritize environmental health alongside water management. The Colorado River supports numerous ecosystems and contributes to a recreation economy worth millions.
Looking forward, the draft document lays out a variety of tools and strategies to manage the river, but many require approval from the states before they can be implemented. Without consensus, the Bureau of Reclamation will face limitations in its ability to manage reservoir operations effectively.
The proposed plans seek to address the challenges posed by climate change, but some experts caution that merely adjusting existing frameworks may not suffice. Kyle Roerink, Executive Director of the Great Basin Water Network, highlighted the urgency of addressing the growing uncertainty surrounding water availability.
“It’s clear that doing nothing poses significant risks to our infrastructure, ecosystems, and communities along the Colorado River system,” Roerink remarked.
As states work towards a long-term agreement, a stopgap solution may be necessary to bridge the gap while negotiations continue. The new management plan is anticipated to last for 20 years, but the pressing need for a cooperative approach cannot be overstated. Each day without a plan increases the stakes for the millions who rely on the Colorado River.
