Hawaii experienced its strongest January since the onset of the pandemic, with visitor spending surging by 19% to reach $2.26 billion. Arrivals also rose by 10.4% to 874,358 visitors, predominantly driven by robust demand from the U.S. West and U.S. East markets. This data, released on February 2, 2026, by the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism (DBEDT), highlights both the recovery of tourism and the challenges still faced by the industry.
DBEDT Director James Tokioka expressed optimism regarding the performance of Hawaii’s core domestic markets, stating, “We are encouraged to see strong growth in visitor arrivals from our core U.S. West (+13.9%) and U.S. East (+23.1%) markets in January 2026.” The spending from these markets also showed substantial increases, with U.S. West visitors contributing $1.1 billion (up 30.7%) and U.S. East visitors spending $749.7 million (up 24.6%).
Despite these gains, the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) cautioned that Hawaii’s tourism economy remains uneven. The state is still gradually recovering from a mild recession that occurred last year, with projections indicating that job growth and income levels may take years to stabilize due to weak population trends and structural economic limitations.
As the spring travel season approaches, the tourism sector faces further uncertainty. Airlines are predicting a record-breaking national travel season, with 171 million passengers expected between March and April. However, potential bottlenecks at major gateways, including Honolulu, are a concern due to ongoing issues with the Global Entry program. Chris Sununu, President and CEO of Airlines for America, highlighted that the partial suspension of Global Entry could lead to longer processing times just as travel volumes are set to increase.
The current instability in regions such as Mexico is influencing traveler behavior, prompting some families to consider Hawaii as a safer alternative. Mufi Hannemann, President and CEO of the Hawai‘i Lodging and Tourism Association, emphasized the need to promote Hawaii’s reputation as a secure destination in light of global uncertainties. “Any impediment to travel—geopolitical, economic, or logistical—hits the islands quickly,” he stated.
International visitor numbers have shown mixed results. While arrivals from Japan increased by 4.5%, spending remained flat. South Korea reported gains in both arrivals and spending, but Canada experienced declines with arrivals down 8.7% and spending down 10.3%. Hannemann noted, “At the end of the day, we are still a relatively safe place to come and visit, and that message has to be amplified.”
The uneven recovery is evident across Hawaii’s tourism landscape. While some areas have seen modest improvements since late 2025, others continue to lag behind pre-pandemic levels. Attractions, restaurants, and affiliate businesses are struggling, compounded by the loss of major sporting events that previously attracted visitors. The future of events such as the Sentry and Sony Open remains uncertain, and the relocation of the Maui Invitational further highlights the challenges ahead.
Hotel performance has mirrored these discrepancies. Many properties reported stronger-than-expected transient demand at the beginning of the year, with statewide forecasts indicating an occupancy rate flattening at 73.8% for 2026. Jerry Gibson, President of the Hawai‘i Hotel Alliance, noted that results varied significantly among hotels, depending on their specific market mix.
Maui continues to show signs of recovery, with arrivals up 16.7% and spending up 24.3% in January, driven by the state’s tourism recovery campaign. Oahu remains the busiest island, attracting 527,241 visitors and generating $937 million in spending. Meanwhile, Kauai posted gains, while Hawaii Island saw a decline in arrivals despite a rise in spending.
Looking ahead, Gibson is hopeful that group travel will strengthen through February and March, which could provide a boost as the spring season approaches. He remarked that the situation in Mexico might be steering more travelers toward Hawaii, as “People right now won’t be thrilled with going into Mexico with the situation as vulnerable as it is.”
Despite positive signs, experts like Keith Vieira of KV & Associates warn of the ongoing reliance on U.S. travelers, which complicates long-term planning. He pointed out that disruptions in air service could adversely affect spring break travel patterns. Although Hawaii’s brand remains strong, sustaining momentum will require stable funding for tourism marketing.
UHERO’s findings indicate that while the tourism sector has stabilized, it is not experiencing significant growth. Average daily visitor numbers fell by 1.3% in 2025, with international arrivals declining sharply amidst backlash to U.S. federal policies. Domestic visitors have helped mitigate these losses, but a meaningful rebound in international tourism is not anticipated until 2027.
As Hawaii navigates its recovery, the industry remains resilient, working to adapt to shifting traveler preferences and external pressures. The focus on safety and stability will be crucial in attracting visitors in a competitive global market.
