As Week 13 of the NFL season approaches, fantasy football players are keenly analyzing which players are trending toward increased targets. Recent data from Pro Football Focus (PFF) has highlighted several key players who exhibited strong performance indicators in Week 12, suggesting potential breakout opportunities for the upcoming games.
Utilizing an XGBOOST model alongside PFF’s extensive route-level data, analysts can predict where targets are likely to go on each play. This approach has yielded valuable metrics, including the Share of Predicted Targets and Share of Predicted Air Yards, which have proven to be more reliable than traditional statistics.
In reviewing the outcomes from Week 12, several noteworthy performances stand out. For instance, Parker Washington garnered seven targets, reflecting a 23.33% target share. In contrast, Isaiah Williams saw no targets, with his route percentage plummeting by over 50%. Meanwhile, Khalil Shakir secured ten targets, achieving a 32.26% target share, while Kyle Pitts recorded five targets for a 25.00% target share. The model successfully identified three players with target shares exceeding 20%, all of whom surpassed their season averages.
Identifying Potential Breakouts
As the analysis shifts to Week 13, attention turns to players who were frequently open yet not targeted in Week 12. Such players typically experience an uptick in targets per route run and overall target share in subsequent games. Notably, D.K. Metcalf had an advantageous matchup against the Chicago Bears, consistently creating separation but failing to receive as many targets as expected.
The defensive landscape also plays a crucial role in shaping offensive output. A recent examination of potential expected points added (EPA) per attempt allowed reveals interesting trends. The Houston Texans and Los Angeles Rams have emerged as elite defenses this season, effectively limiting opposing offenses’ opportunities. As of now, the Washington Commanders represent the weakest defense in this metric, ranking as the 50th worst since 2019.
This season has seen a notable decline in the average potential EPA faced by defenses, the lowest recorded since 2019. This trend underscores the growing effectiveness of zone-heavy defensive schemes that limit available EPA for offenses, a strategy that has been gaining traction in recent years.
Highlighting Key Plays from Week 12
A particularly noteworthy moment occurred involving Jameis Winston and Wan’Dale Robinson during a critical point in their game against the New York Giants. With just under six minutes remaining in the fourth quarter and the Giants leading 27-24, Robinson executed a post route against man coverage, achieving a high separation grade of +1.5 according to PFF metrics. Despite this, Winston faced intense pressure from defender Al-Quadin Muhammad, preventing him from targeting Robinson.
Instead, Winston managed to evade a sack, rolling out to his left and finding Theo Johnson wide open for a 39-yard gain. This play not only showcased Winston’s resilience under pressure but also provided the Giants with a crucial opportunity to extend their lead.
As fantasy managers adjust their lineups for Week 13, understanding these dynamics will be essential. The insights gained from PFF’s analysis and player performance trends could prove instrumental in making informed decisions that influence fantasy outcomes as the season progresses.
