The EUR/USD currency pair has maintained a steady position above the 1.1700 mark as the US Dollar continues to weaken. This development comes as investors await the critical Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report set for release on Tuesday. As of the latest updates, the pair trades at approximately 1.1739, remaining unchanged.
This stability in the Euro can be attributed to the recent performance of the US Dollar, which has been declining, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) experiencing its third loss in four sessions. The index, which measures the Dollar against a basket of six major currencies, has dipped by 0.10%, potentially approaching the 98.00 mark if the jobs market continues to show signs of deterioration.
Investor sentiment is currently influenced by mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. Fed Governor Stephen Miran has adopted a dovish stance, while Boston Fed President Susan Collins has provided neutral insights regarding her decisions from the December meeting. In contrast, New York Fed President John Williams has indicated a modestly hawkish view, stating that monetary policy has shifted from “modestly restrictive” to neutral.
Upcoming US Economic Data and ECB Outlook
Market participants are bracing for the upcoming US NFP and retail sales data, which are expected to serve as crucial catalysts for both the Dollar and future Federal Reserve policy expectations. The NFP report for November is projected to indicate job gains of 40,000, while the unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at 4.4%. Additionally, October retail sales are forecasted to rise by 0.2% month-on-month, consistent with September’s figures.
Across Europe, a recent poll conducted by Reuters suggests that economists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain its current monetary policy throughout 2026. This outlook is based on anticipated subdued inflation levels and expectations of a resilient economy. The ECB is scheduled to meet on December 18, with no changes in interest rates expected.
Euro Performance Against Major Currencies
The Euro has shown strength against several major currencies this month, particularly against the US Dollar. A detailed review of performance reveals that the Euro has increased by 1.32% against the Dollar, while also registering gains against the British Pound and Canadian Dollar. The following table illustrates the percentage changes of the Euro against other major currencies:
– USD: -1.32%
– GBP: 1.01%
– JPY: 0.61%
– CAD: 1.47%
– AUD: 1.38%
– NZD: 0.83%
– CHF: 0.93%
These figures highlight the Euro’s robustness in the current market conditions, suggesting a favorable outlook as traders assess both US economic data and ECB policy decisions.
The technical outlook for the EUR/USD suggests a neutral-to-bullish bias. If the pair closes the week above 1.1700, it would reinforce this view. Momentum indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index, are pointing higher, indicating increased buying interest. A break above the December 11 high of 1.1762 could pave the way toward 1.1800 and potentially the yearly high of 1.1918.
Conversely, should the EUR/USD dip below 1.1700, attention may shift to initial support levels near the 100-day Simple Moving Average at approximately 1.1645, followed by the 1.1600 threshold.
As the week progresses, the focus remains on how upcoming economic data will influence market dynamics and the positioning of both the Euro and the US Dollar in the global economic landscape.
