A recent report from the prominent foreign-policy think tank, The Atlantic Council, advocates for the retention of 5,000 U.S. Marines currently stationed in Okinawa, Japan, rather than relocating them to Guam. The report, released on February 2, 2024, asserts that the Marines’ presence in Okinawa is crucial for deterring potential conflicts with China, particularly regarding Taiwan.
The report highlights that moving the Marines to Guam would place them too far from the operational theatre to effectively respond to threats. It suggests that the military facilities, which represent an investment of approximately $6.2 billion, could be repurposed for Army use instead. According to the report, which includes insights from a lieutenant colonel in the Marine Corps, the new facilities on Guam may serve the Army better than the Marines.
This proposal follows comments made by Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Eric Smith, who previously indicated that relocating Marines from Okinawa to Guam would be a misstep. The Atlantic Council, based in Washington, D.C., is a significant player in shaping U.S. foreign policy, reporting that nearly 25% of its $66 million revenue in 2024 came from government grants, including significant contributions from the Department of War and the Department of State.
Strategic Implications of Marine Relocation
The Atlantic Council’s findings suggest that renegotiating the U.S.-Japan Defense Policy Review Initiative (DPRI), which initiated the Marine relocation effort, may be necessary. Established in 2006, the DPRI aimed to reduce the number of U.S. service members in Okinawa due to longstanding political pressures. The report underscores that delays in Marine relocation come at a strategic juncture as China intensifies its military ambitions in the Western Pacific.
The authors assert that relocating these Marines would diminish the U.S. deterrent capability in the event of a Taiwan conflict. Notably, they refer to the “First Island Chain,” a critical defense line in the region, emphasizing that rapid-response Marine forces are better positioned in Japan. The report states, “If fully implemented, the DPRI would give Chinese military planners exactly what they want—a removal of U.S. forces from locations where they are most essential.”
The report also discusses the ongoing negotiations concerning the Marine relocation. Under Secretary of the Navy Hung Cao indicated to Guam media that the military is “constantly reevaluating” the situation. The Atlantic Council emphasizes that these negotiations may become increasingly complex, with suggestions of providing economic incentives to Okinawans, such as exemptions from tariffs.
Local Perspectives and Future Considerations
According to the report, the closure of Marine Corps Air Station Futenma in Okinawa remains a contentious issue. This base’s relocation has been a significant factor delaying the Marine transfer to Guam. The report argues for keeping Futenma operational, proposing that both U.S. and Japanese Self-Defense Forces could benefit from its continued use. The base’s closure has been linked to historical incidents involving U.S. servicemen, which have fueled local opposition.
Robert Underwood, chairman of the Pacific Center for Island Security, noted that the Atlantic Council’s insights align with ongoing discussions in Guam about the likelihood of keeping Marines stationed in Okinawa. He remarked, “The Marines don’t really want to come to Guam,” stressing the seriousness of the considerations in Washington regarding this issue.
Underwood expressed concern about the implications of a canceled military buildup for Guam’s role in regional security. He highlighted that the fate of Camp Blaz, a new military facility in Guam, remains uncertain. The site has significant cultural and environmental implications, as it is located on land with historical artifacts.
While the Atlantic Council’s report considered economic incentives for Okinawa, Underwood pointed out that Guam was not included in these discussions. He stressed the need for local leaders to engage with the ongoing dialogue to ensure the community is well-informed.
The situation surrounding the potential relocation of U.S. Marines illustrates the intricate balance of military strategy, local politics, and international relations in the Asia-Pacific region. As discussions continue, the outcomes will have lasting repercussions for U.S. military presence and regional stability.
