Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) has announced significant findings from its Phase 3 clinical trial for its oral GLP-1 medication, orforglipron, which demonstrated superior results compared to Novo Nordisk A/S’s (NYSE: NVO) oral semaglutide. The trial, known as ACHIEVE-3, involved 1,698 participants with type 2 diabetes who were inadequately controlled on metformin, aiming to evaluate the efficacy of orforglipron against semaglutide.
During the 52-week study, orforglipron exhibited remarkable results, achieving a 2.2% reduction in A1C levels, significantly surpassing the 1.4% reduction noted for semaglutide. Additionally, participants using orforglipron lost an average of 19.7 pounds (9.2%), which is 73.6% more than the weight loss experienced by those on semaglutide. These findings may bolster Eli Lilly’s position in the competitive weight-loss drug market.
Regulatory Outlook and Market Reaction
Eli Lilly has submitted orforglipron for regulatory approval in over 40 countries, with a potential decision for obesity treatment in the United States anticipated by March 2026. The company’s announcement, although promising, coincided with a broader market downturn, as the S&P 500 fell by 1.08% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.80%. Eli Lilly’s shares were down 1.97% at $1,008.53 at the time of publication, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Despite the stock’s recent decline, it has seen an impressive increase of approximately 65% over the past year. Currently, shares trade 5.2% below their 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and 8.4% below their 100-day SMA, indicating some short-term weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 50.00, suggesting neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is at 0.10, below its signal line of 0.15, reflecting bearish pressure.
Investors are paying close attention to the developments surrounding orforglipron, as its successful trial outcomes could influence market dynamics. The company is positioned closer to its 52-week highs than lows, and analysts are watching key resistance at $1,100.00 and support at $950.00.
Competitive Landscape
On the competitive front, Novo Nordisk’s recent trial results from the REDEFINE 4 study did not demonstrate non-inferiority on weight loss for its CagriSema treatment compared to Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide after 84 weeks. This development may impact Novo Nordisk’s market standing, especially as Eli Lilly continues to report strong efficacy results for orforglipron.
As Eli Lilly prepares for potential regulatory approval and further clinical developments, the performance of orforglipron in ongoing and future trials will be crucial in shaping its market trajectory and investor confidence. The company’s ability to navigate these challenges could redefine its role in the obesity treatment sector.
