Scientists at the University of Maryland have made a groundbreaking discovery regarding moonquakes, revealing that these seismic events, rather than meteoroid impacts, are responsible for shifting terrain near the Apollo 17 landing site. The study, published on December 7, 2025, in the journal Science Advances, highlights the presence of an active fault that has been generating quakes for millions of years. This finding has significant implications for NASA’s future lunar missions and the planning of long-term lunar bases.
Examining the Taurus-Littrow valley, where Apollo 17 astronauts made their historic landing in 1972, researchers identified that the shaking from moonquakes has caused notable geological changes in the area. The work, conducted by Thomas R. Watters, a Senior Scientist Emeritus at the Smithsonian, and Nicholas Schmerr, an Associate Professor of Geology at the University of Maryland, draws on samples and observations collected during the Apollo missions. Their analysis indicates that boulder tracks and landslides were indeed triggered by moonquake activity.
“Our assessment had to rely on geological evidence since we lack strong motion instruments on the moon that can measure seismic activity like we do on Earth,” Schmerr stated. “We utilized boulder falls and landslides as indicators of the seismic events that have occurred.”
Active Faults and Lunar Infrastructure Risks
The study indicates that moonquakes with magnitudes around 3.0—considered mild by Earth standards—have shaken the Taurus-Littrow valley repeatedly over the past 90 million years. These seismic events are associated with the Lee-Lincoln fault, a tectonic feature cutting through the valley floor. The findings suggest that this fault has not yet become dormant, posing a potential risk for future lunar infrastructure.
Watters emphasized the need to consider the global distribution of young thrust faults like the Lee-Lincoln fault when planning permanent outposts on the moon. “Their potential to remain active, as well as the risk of forming new faults from ongoing contraction, should guide the location and stability assessments of lunar bases,” he remarked.
To quantify the risk for future lunar operations, Watters and Schmerr calculated the likelihood of a damaging quake occurring near an active fault. Their research estimates a one in 20 million chance of such an event happening on any given day. While this may seem minimal, Schmerr cautioned that long-term missions could face an increasing risk.
“The odds may not appear significant,” he explained, “but with extended lunar stays, the risk accumulates. For a decade-long mission, that translates to about a one in 5,500 chance of experiencing a hazardous moonquake.”
Upcoming missions, particularly those involving taller lander designs such as NASA’s Starship Human Landing System, could be more vulnerable to ground acceleration from nearby moonquakes.
Future Planning and Research in Lunar Paleoseismology
As NASA progresses with its Artemis program, which aims to establish a sustained human presence on the moon, researchers stress the importance of incorporating modern findings into mission planning. Schmerr noted that while short missions may have limited risk, the potential hazards associated with long-duration stays cannot be ignored.
“If astronauts are on the moon for just a day, they might have bad luck if a damaging event occurs,” he said. “However, for missions lasting a decade, the cumulative risk becomes considerably higher.”
This research is part of an emerging field known as lunar paleoseismology, which focuses on understanding ancient seismic activity on the moon. Unlike Earth, where researchers can excavate to find evidence of earthquakes, lunar scientists depend on previously collected samples and orbital imaging. Schmerr anticipates that advancements in technology and high-resolution mapping, along with new Artemis missions deploying modern seismometers, will accelerate progress in this field.
“We aim to ensure that lunar exploration is conducted safely,” Schmerr emphasized. “Our conclusion is clear: avoid building directly on or near a scarp or an active fault to mitigate risks.”
This study was supported by NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter mission, which launched on June 18, 2009. The orbiter has provided critical data for lunar research, although the views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of the organization.
The implications of this research are far-reaching, potentially reshaping how humanity approaches lunar exploration and settlement in the years to come. As planning continues for future missions, the lessons learned from the past will be essential in mitigating risks and ensuring the safety of astronauts on the moon.
