URGENT UPDATE: Bitcoin (BTC) is poised to reach a new all-time high in 2026, according to a groundbreaking analysis from Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan. This prediction, made in a Monday note, indicates a significant shift as Bitcoin is set to break its traditional four-year cycle pattern, with powerful new factors influencing its price trajectory.
Latest reports confirm that the forces previously driving Bitcoin’s cycles are weakening, paving the way for a sustained price surge. Pro-crypto regulations and an influx of institutional capital through Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are expected to support and elevate Bitcoin’s value throughout 2026. Hougan emphasizes that this forthcoming era will see Bitcoin experience lower volatility compared to tech giants such as Nvidia, while also showing a modest correlation with stock markets.
Historically, Bitcoin has operated on a four-year cycle, marked by three years of price gains followed by a sharp downturn. By this pattern, 2026 was anticipated to be a pullback year, especially considering the last halving event that occurred in April 2024. However, Hougan challenges this notion, arguing that the structural dynamics influencing Bitcoin have changed dramatically.
“In our view, the forces that previously drove four-year cycles – the Bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles, and crypto’s leverage-fueled booms and busts – are significantly weaker than they’ve been in past cycles,” Hougan stated. This sentiment reflects a broader consensus in the cryptocurrency community regarding the evolving market landscape.
The anticipated wave of institutional investment is already gaining momentum, particularly following the approval of Bitcoin ETFs. Major players like Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America are expected to channel portions of their combined $3.5 trillion in client assets into Bitcoin ETFs, further solidifying Bitcoin’s position in the financial market. Just this month, Bank of America authorized its financial advisers to recommend Bitcoin ETFs, marking a significant milestone in institutional acceptance.
The research arm of Grayscale supports Bitwise’s transformative outlook, projecting that Bitcoin will set new records in the first half of 2026. They cite macroeconomic factors, such as rising public debt and improved regulatory clarity, as essential components fueling this bullish sentiment.
Moreover, Hougan notes that interest rate cycles are now more favorable for crypto. Unlike previous years—specifically 2018 and 2022, when rising rates pressured digital assets—the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates three times in 2025 and is expected to continue this easing trend into the new year.
As Bitcoin’s volatility diminishes, the trend of its correlation with stock markets is also shifting. Bitwise reports that Bitcoin’s price changes have been less volatile than those of Nvidia throughout 2025. This trend is projected to continue, with Hougan predicting a decrease in Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks as regulatory advancements and institutional adoption drive prices upward, even amid short-term economic uncertainties.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading near $87,000, down nearly 1% at the time of publication on Wednesday. Investors and crypto enthusiasts alike are watching closely as new trends emerge, reshaping the future of the cryptocurrency landscape.
As we move into 2026, all eyes will be on Bitcoin as it navigates through uncharted territory, potentially redefining market dynamics and setting new benchmarks in the crypto world. Stay tuned for ongoing updates on this developing story.
