Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is experiencing a significant reduction in support from his long-time allies, Russia and China, as tensions escalate with the United States. Under increasing military pressure from President Donald Trump, both countries have shifted their focus away from providing the assistance that Venezuela has relied upon in the past.
Historically, Beijing and Moscow have aided Caracas with military equipment, financial support, and training for Venezuelan forces. However, their current engagement appears to be limited. Vladimir Rouvinski, an international relations professor at Icesi University, noted that Russia’s contributions have dwindled since the onset of its war in Ukraine. Previously, Russia had showcased military solidarity by sending two nuclear-capable bombers to Venezuela in 2018. Currently, its support is reduced to providing just two oil tankers to assist in transporting Venezuelan crude oil to China.
Declining Alliances Amid Global Pressures
Rouvinski pointed out that these gestures are insufficient if the U.S. escalates its military actions against Venezuela. He emphasized that both Russia and China are currently navigating complex diplomatic relationships with the Trump administration, making them hesitant to provoke the U.S. by supporting Maduro’s regime. “Russia isn’t going to help Maduro beyond what they’ve already done,” Rouvinski stated.
This apparent withdrawal of support comes after years of Maduro’s efforts to strengthen ties with Beijing and Moscow to counteract U.S. influence. His predecessor, Hugo Chávez, strategically leveraged Venezuela’s vast oil and mineral reserves to establish an economic alliance with China, Russia, Cuba, and Iran, securing billions in loans and investment for infrastructure projects. However, these alliances have weakened as Venezuela’s oil production has plummeted and civil unrest has risen since Maduro took power in 2013. Complicating matters further, U.S. sanctions imposed in 2019 have severely impacted Venezuela’s oil sector.
China stands to lose significantly if Maduro’s government collapses, having invested over $30 billion in arms sales to Caracas since 2000, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. This financial commitment underscores the stakes for Beijing in the current geopolitical landscape.
Calls for Military Support Go Unanswered
The situation mirrors the recent dynamics observed with Iran during the 12-day conflict over the summer, where both Russia and China were largely passive despite the threats posed by U.S. and Israeli military actions. Last month, as U.S. forces were reported amassing in the Caribbean, Maduro reached out to both Russia and China for military assistance. According to documents obtained by the Washington Post, he requested from Vladimir Putin defensive radars, aircraft repairs, and missiles, while also appealing to Xi Jinping for enhanced military cooperation to counter the escalating U.S. presence.
As Venezuela finds itself increasingly isolated, the long-term implications for its political landscape remain uncertain. The waning support from its key allies raises questions about the future stability of Maduro’s administration and the potential for further U.S. intervention.
