The special educational needs and disability (SEND) services in England are on the verge of a “total collapse,” with councils projected to accumulate debts of £18 billion by the end of the decade. This alarming situation arises from a surge in demand for additional educational support, putting immense pressure on local authorities. Without immediate and substantial reform, approximately 59 upper-tier councils could face effective bankruptcy by March 2028.
The County Councils Network (CCN) released a report on March 15, 2024, highlighting the urgent need for government intervention to address the escalating costs associated with SEND support. Currently, councils are grappling with a system that is ill-equipped to handle the rising number of children requiring specialized assistance in schools. Matthew Hicks, chair of the CCN, emphasized the gravity of the situation, stating, “The system is heading towards total collapse in little over four years.”
A potential solution being considered involves significant changes to the SEND framework, aiming to control rising expenses while still meeting the needs of children within mainstream schools. The government has acknowledged the challenges faced by families, with a spokesperson from the Department for Education noting that the SEND system was left in a precarious state. The spokesperson added, “We’re determined to put that right by improving mainstream inclusion so every child can thrive at their local school.”
The financial burden of SEND support has surged dramatically in recent years. The number of Education and Health Care Plans (EHCPs) issued has reached a record 638,000 for the 2024-25 period, with projections suggesting this could rise to 840,000 by 2028-29. This increase means that one in 20 children and young people in England could be entitled to specialized support.
The CCN report points out that over two-thirds of EHCPs are related to autism, neurodiversity needs, social and emotional health, and communication difficulties. Despite the legal guarantees provided by EHCPs for educational support, the rising numbers have compelled councils to increasingly depend on private specialist schools. This shift has resulted in an average annual cost per place of £72,000 in these institutions, compared to just £10,000 in mainstream schools.
Earlier this year, a comprehensive survey conducted by the Guardian revealed that local councils’ total forecasted SEND deficits could reach £3.2 billion by March 2025, escalating to £5.2 billion by March 2026. The CCN report estimates that the deficit could grow to £6.6 billion by March 2026, doubling to £13.4 billion by March 2028, and potentially hitting £18 billion by March 2029.
A key date, March 2028, is critical for local councils as an “override” accounting arrangement allowing authorities to keep SEND debts hidden will come to an end. If these debts are recorded on balance sheets, many councils may find themselves insolvent.
Lorna Baxter, president of the Association of Local Authority Treasurers, highlighted the severity of the situation by stating, “We often hear of the black hole in public finances, but SEND deficits totalling billions of pounds are being hidden in local authority accounts. Without prompt government intervention, we risk an unprecedented local authority financial crisis.”
The urgent call for reform and financial support from the government reflects a growing consensus that the current system is not sustainable. Parents and stakeholders are bracing for potential changes that could redefine access to support for children with special educational needs, with a strong likelihood of pushback from affected families. As the situation continues to evolve, the focus remains on finding a viable solution that balances fiscal responsibility with the essential needs of vulnerable children.
