A recent survey conducted by Emerson College Polling reveals a notable trend among voters as they prepare for the 2028 presidential election. The results indicate a preference for moderate candidates over those aligned with more extreme political ideologies, specifically “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) Republicans and progressive Democrats.
The survey results showed that moderate Democrats received 47% support compared to 38% for their MAGA counterparts. In a matchup between moderates and progressives, moderate Republicans led with 48% against 36% for progressive Democrats. Notably, the support for moderates was even more pronounced among independent voters.
Insights from Political Analysts
Political scientist Jake Neiheisel from the University at Buffalo noted that voters often express a preference for moderates. However, he cautioned that this preference does not always translate into action at the ballot box. He described a trend of what he terms “leapfrog representation,” where voters oscillate between extremes rather than settling for moderate options.
In contrast, Seth McKee, a politics professor at Oklahoma State University, highlighted that moderate candidates tend to appeal to swing voters, which is crucial for electoral success. He stated, “There are several more points to be won at the ballot box if you’re a more centrist or moderate candidate.”
Despite the apparent support for moderate candidates, Peter Loge, director of the School of Media and Public Affairs at George Washington University, pointed out that the political landscape tends to favor partisan candidates. He remarked, “One man’s moderate is another man’s extremist,” indicating that perceptions of moderation can vary widely among voters.
Challenges Facing Moderates
Research shows mixed results regarding the electoral success of moderate candidates. According to Loge, moderates often struggle during primary seasons, where politically engaged voters are more likely to lean toward extreme candidates. He explained that if several moderates compete, they may split the non-extreme vote, allowing a more extreme candidate to emerge from the primary process.
As the political landscape evolves, questions remain about the type of candidates that will dominate in 2028. Neiheisel anticipates a matchup between a progressive Democrat and a MAGA Republican, suggesting that political parties often gravitate toward the extremes that they believe will resonate with voters.
McKee holds a different view, predicting a clash between a moderate Democrat and a MAGA Republican. He noted that the Republican Party faces challenges in finding a moderate candidate capable of securing the nomination. In contrast, he believes Democrats have a strong pool of moderate governors who could run successfully, including Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Andy Beshear of Kentucky, and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan.
Among the potential candidates, California Governor Gavin Newsom stands out as a progressive option, though McKee mentioned that his association with “California liberal” views could hinder his appeal in early primary states.
The electoral landscape for 2028 remains uncertain, but the survey results suggest a growing appetite for moderate choices among voters. As the political climate shifts, it will be intriguing to see how these preferences influence candidate nominations and the subsequent election outcomes.
